As we enter a new decade, how well is the EU equipped to provide global leadership? Is it fit for purpose in remaking a sharp and efficient new EU? Or will it remain mired in personnel and budget controversy, languishing on the geopolitical side-lines as a wholly different Europe takes shape over the next ten years?
Ten years ago, Europe was still reeling from the economic contractions and the social uprisings caused by the Eurozone crisis, and the global downturn more generally. The UNSC was united in their attempted response to the outbreak of the Libyan civil war, with EU Member States determined to play a new and punchier role in the neighbourhood.
Now, Europe is confronted with Russia determined to play Middle East power broker, China prepared to dig deep to win trade-based spats, a US President both hostile to multilateralism and belligerent to Europe, and Brexit, to top it off. That’s without even mentioning the ongoing global bruising inflicted by terrorism, epidemics and climate change.
Trump First
If anyone has a big to-do list in 2020, it is surely President Trump and his administration. He has pursued an aggressive foreign trade policy, placing high tariffs against a number of allies and foes, not least China, in which he applied tariffs on over $300 billion worth of Chinese goods in the last 18 months. Equally, Trump has been keen to demonstrate his negotiating prowess, bringing China to the table with a well-timed pre-Davos preliminary agreement. For some, it appears that Trump is beginning to get his way on trade. For others, an emerging Chinese middle class may itself be part of the motivation for Beijing to increase its imports as its own economy shifts to a more developed status.
However, in other areas, Trump has serious issues. There are some concerns that a US recession could be on the cards as the stock market continues its extraordinary bull run. Nobel economist prize winner Joseph Stiglitz recently wrote of the underlining issues in the US economy, including wage stagnation, deteriorating health of the workforce and declining living standards. In the global arena, Trump’s aggressive stance towards Iran threatens stability as the EU 3 (France, German and Britain) desperately attempt to salvage the Iran Nuclear Accord agreed by Obama in 2015.
Under all this lies Trump’s future. His impeachment trial in the US Senate was a foregone conclusion, but his subsequent purge-like approach to Republicans and staffers alike remotely involved in the investigation, as well as the damaging revelations by former National Security Adviser John Bolton will not ultimately be helpful. In the meantime, Trump has begun flavouring national policy with campaign messages ahead of the November elections. The question is the strategies – both domestic and foreign – that Trump is prepared to undertake to demonstrate conclusively that he is
winning : from low-cost wins with Mexico to high-risk strategies in Iran and Afghanistan, he’s keen to make good on the promises of his inauguration speech in 2017.
Indeed, one of the untoward outcomes of the Trump Presidency has been his ability to align with the personalities and indeed policies of historic American adversaries, including North Korea, Russia and Syria, whilst simultaneously alienating long-term allies like the European Union.
Trump has successively applied the controversial Section 232 regarding tariff implementation to the EU, walked away from the EU-backed Iranian Nuclear Accord, and has been withering in his criticism of both NATO’s rationale and spending methods. His repeated interventions on Brexit, to trade-baiting both post-Brexit Britain and the EU have further left the UK unsure of the current state of the transatlantic relationship and showcased an increasingly ‘divide and conquer’ approach by the White House.
From free trade to multilateralism, from regional cooperation and international norms, the Trump administration has made clear its preference for old-school bilats leaving the starkest of divides between the US and its European counterparts.
Here’s looking at EU, kid
The European Union begins the decade on the back foot: facing the first example of de-integration, and possibly dis-integration with the departure of the UK, alongside a proportionate hole in the EU budget. While on foreign and security policy, it’s likely the EU and UK will ultimately carve parallel if not overlapping paths, 2020 and indeed the years immediately afterwards are likely to be torturous in terms of free trade machismo. The EU’s ability to respond robustly rests upon the political will to make intrepid, rather than lacklustre policies and ensure institutional effectiveness, rather than ineptitude. The focus is naturally upon the European Commission, and its ability to lead the EU through the initial impacts of Brexit, periodic eruptions populism and Euroscepticism, and the guaranteed challenges of migration, security, terrorism, the Eurozone, and much else.
The Commission is now headed by the relatively unknown former German Defence Minister, Ursula Von der Leyen (VDL). Vowing to lead a leaner, more responsive, and
geopolitical European Commission, Von der Leyen’s in-tray is substantial. Ensuring EU negotiations with the UK -led by Michel Barnier aren’t mired in trade squabbles but include strategic and sustainable policies is key.
Working in tandem with the 27 Member States in the challenge is to balance trade interests whilst equally ensuring that Britain isn’t seen to benefit too much or encouraged to diverse from EU standards, given its geographical location. Of course, there lies other significant issues for the EU. A lack of agreement amongst EU member states currently means that that there is a lack of coherence on common public and foreign policies. Populism continues to be an issue across member states, whist the trade spat with the USA threatens to grow if Trump is re-elected later this year. All the while, there is significant concerns that economic growth is slowing across the EU, not helped by European banks struggling in a post-2008 world.
Yet, VDL has demonstrated an early determination for the EU to become increasingly involved in global issues. Her new Commission will now ensure that at the weekly College of Commissioners meetings, there is a reserved item for External Action. This decision is motivated in part by an increasingly reclusive USA, demonstrated by the recent summits between Russia and Turkey over Syria and the Libyan summit in Germany.
There is a growing feeling that with the United States less interested in North Africa and the Middle East (with notable exceptions in Iran and Israel-Palestine), the EU will step up. This call to action is of course partly motivated by the migration crises that have simmered since 2015, but also by a respect for the EU’s soft powers. In other areas, the EU also wants to be seen as a world-leader. VDL has been pushing the need for a European
Green New Deal, helping firmly established the EU as the leading voice on Climate Change.
It’s an issue that has been highly challenging, not least over energy, as Eastern European member states are particularly dependent on coal energy and some developed states like France are reluctant to move away from nuclear energy. However, a recent survey across the EU27 revealed that 40% of respondents felt
the environment should be the priority policy for the EU, the most popular choice. Indeed, there is a feeling that if a compromise can be found, it will allow the EU to unite more on other areas after a period of stagnation and tension.
The EU also has regional ambitions. The new High Representative, Joseph Borrell announced recently that he would visit the Russian separatist-held region of Donbas in the Ukraine. His decision appears motivated by a desire to see what is occurring on the ground, but it may also signal a desire to move away from the Normandy Model that has seen France and Germany spearhead effort for a peaceful resolution since 2014.
This is set against a somewhat unclear development by French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Trump, both of whom appear keen to reset relations with Putin’s Russia, possibly by inviting Russia back to the G7 fold (having been expelled over the illegal occupation of Crimea). With the Russian economy struggling, partly due to EU and US sanctions against the country, and Putin triggering the slow race towards his own re-election (or re-incarnation), alongside forthright work as a Middle East power broker in the past 2 years, the EU will need to figure out how to work more intelligently with a Russia coming in from the cold.
At national level, one of the EU’s largest issues is the possible collapse of Angela Merkel’s
GroKo government. Her junior coalition partners, the SPD, recently elected the relatively unknown duo of Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken to the leadership to the party, with a desire to shift to the left to try to stabilise falling numbers.
Merkel’s own party, the CDU, elected her replacement as party leader at the end of 2018 in Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who has since replaced VDL as Germany’s Defence Minister. However, Kramp-Karrenbauer tendered her resignation at the beginning of February as party chair, after the local CDU branch in Thuringia voted with the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AFD) party to install a liberal premier, breaking a long-held German taboo over far-right politics. Despite apparent political instability across her coalition, Merkel has however demonstrated the respect in which she continues to be held nationally, as well as her own determination in seeing out the remainder of her tenure until 2021.
In Britain, Boris Johnson now past the honeymoon period after delivering the best Conservative General Election performance since 1987. Floods and EU negotiations now await, but with his majority of 80+ seats in the House of Commons, aided by a weak Labour party mired in its post-mortem, few imminent surprises are likely.
With a leadership victory not due to be announced before April 4th, it remains to be seen whether Labour will continue with the Corbynist policies of the last four years or seek to move more to the centre of years prior. The current favourite for the post, Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer, is clearly attempting to place himself as in the middle of the party, speaking of the need to unify and accept both Corbynism and Blairism in equal measure. If he is to emerge as the new Labour leader, it will be interesting to see whether he seeks to bring some of the so-called
heavy hitters off the backbenches like Yvette Cooper and Jess Philips, who refused to serve under Corbyn’s leadership.
Its Going to Take Money… A Whole Lot of Spending Money…
It seems almost fitting that after all the tensions outlined, from a protectionist, Trumpian USA, to a weakened EU, to infighting in EU member states, to a post-Brexit BoJo Britain, the EU has not yet agreed a budget for 2021-2027.
Throughout February, the EU27 have been gathering in Brussels to figure out the ambitious, post-Brexit budget that the institutions would like to embark upon. Yet after many rounds of negotiations, there remains a real lack of consensure. Britain’s departure has added around a loss of €75 billion over the budget period (approximately €10-12 billion per annum) and Sweden, Denmark, Austria and the Netherlands have been determined to make cuts.
The EU’s ambition to add new priorities such as migration control and climate change versus the refusal of many of its members to cut the nearly two-thirds worth of
Agriculture and Cohesion has led to the current impasse. In many ways, the budget fight underlines the issues for the EU. If it is to address the various challenges it faces over the next decade, it must find common ground and abide by common priorities.
Yet, at a time when multilateralism appears to be faltering, it will take an extraordinary amount of effort of the new Commission and EU Council to bring together a disunited Europe. It remains to be seen whether the likes of Ursula Von Der Leyen and Charles Michel can rise to the occasion at this ‘geopolitical’ time.
Amelia Hadfield is the Professor in European & International Affairs at the University of Surrey and Director of the Centre for Britain and Europe (CBE). She tweets at @ameliahadfield1. Image credit: CC by White House/Flickr.
