For the Scottish government, the twin goals of withdrawing from the UK and remaining in the European Union are challenging but potentially attainable. The prospect is not a unicorn vision like the belief that it is possible to leave the EU while keeping the current benefits of remaining in the single European market. The Scottish government’s strategy is about sequencing: withdraw first from the UK so that an independent Scotland can then remain a member state of the EU.
Regaining the sovereignty of the Westminster Parliament is an overriding aim for Brexiteers but for the Scottish Government, it represents an obstacle to Scotland regaining its sovereignty. Nor does the SNP endorse the historic Irish nationalist interpretation of independence, Ourselves Alone. Instead, it takes an extroverted view of the world, with Scotland remaining in the European Union and Edinburgh sharing control of economic activity and immigration with Brussels.
There are two main hurdles that the Scottish government must clear in order to achieve its twin goals. The first is calling and winning a referendum on independence. The second is securing admission to the European Union as a member state. Since losing the 2014 independence referendum with 45 percent of the vote, SNP activists have been training to jump over the hurdle that a referendum sets at 50 percent.
The Edinburgh government’s newly released consultation paper on a second independence referendum sets out terms for a referendum without specifying a date. Before that happens, the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, needs a good reason for a second ballot and confidence that the SNP can win a vote for independence.
Withdrawal of the whole of the UK from the European Union is a fundamental constitutional change in how all Britons are governed even though they were on opposite sides of the fence in the referendum. Population differences meant that the 53.4 per cent of English voting to leave more than outweighed the 62.0 per cent of Scots voting to remain. Nicola Sturgeon regards this as good justification for a second referendum.
Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon are currently shadow-boxing. Nominally, there is agreement that if the Conservative government secured an arrangement with Brussels that gave Scotland a special status within the EU this might remove the case for another independence referendum. This would require the Conservative government to demand something more than a soft Brexit for Scotland. It would require the EU to make unprecedented concessions on an issue of principle to allow a member state to be partly in and partly out of the EU. The EU leadership refused to make lesser concessions that David Cameron sought. Nor does it need to do so for Scotland to become an EU member, since full membership is a goal of the Scottish government.
Shadow-boxing will end before Easter when Theresa May formally notifies Brussels of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. At that point, EU institutions will begin negotiation with the UK government’s representatives. The SNP’s request for a significant role in the UK team negotiating with the EU will be dismissed in London because its political voice is insignificant there. A request to the EU for participation in discussions is also likely to be rebuffed by Brussels because Scotland is not an independent state.
The First Minister can then declare that these rebuffs are a sufficient reason for a second independence referendum. A bill for IndyRef2, as it is colloquially known in Scotland, can be introduced and enacted by the end of June 2017. The UK government can hardly object on principle, given that two years ago David Cameron accepted referendums on Scotland’s right to withdraw from the UK as well as the UK’s right to withdraw from the European Union.
This piece was first published on the UK in a Changing Europe Blog on 19 October 2016.
Richard Rose is Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde. He is the author of Representing Europeans: a Pragmatic Approach (Oxford University Press) and commissioning awardee of the ESRC UK in a Changing Europe programme.
