I’ve been spending time in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, following the campaign trails of Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz as they attempted to win the latest contests in the US Presidential Primary races. Following up from my post yesterday on the Sanders and Trump rallies, this post covers polling day and Cruz’s victory event.

On the ground in Milwaukee, the only campaigns visible as we walk through the streets are those of Senator Bernie Sanders and local Alderman Bob Bauman. A volunteer for the latter was stood right across the street from where we are staying, and revels in telling me about the representative’s local work after we approach him: “I know him personally”, he says, “he’s a real good man who gets things done”. He does a lot for students as well, I’m assured, which is why the Alderman is standing once more to represent the student-dominated 4th district.

It’s in this district where the Sanders campaign too is campaigning hard. Right in front of the University Library I find a campaign volunteer from Michigan. He’s adorned from above-head to toe in Sanders attire, prompting one student to pose for a picture with him (which I gladly took).

He tells me that they’re campaigning here to make sure the students get out vote, telling me “the most important thing is getting students out to vote, many of them don’t know actually what they have to do”. Changes in local voter registration rules in Wisconsin mean voters now have to bring photo-ID in order to be presented with a ballot card. A deeply unpopular move which critics say will confound turnout issues in both the student and socio-economically deprived communities.

Our volunteer, however, is confident of “an easy win” in the area, a feeling shared by a second volunteer who comes to join us as we chat. She tells me she’s “shifted around 120 voting cards” while at her station, and has come back for more. The interest in their literature is not surprising given the number of students passing us wearing Sanders badges and pledging their support. Predictably, Sanders seems to be sweeping up the student vote here.

As I move up past the student bubble and further North into an African American majority neighbourhood, gone are the candidates and campaign teams who are replaced by rows upon rows of signs. Interestingly, they are almost exclusively for local and Supreme Court candidates. On this straw ‘sign’ poll, Alderman Bauman seems very popular. The only Presidential signs present in the neighbourhood were a handful for Sanders and a five-house cul-de-sac which seemed to be the local hub for Ted Cruz fans. People here seem to be very happy openly backing their local candidates, but keeping tight-lipped about their Presidential choices.

Across the City, from downtown to the suburban neighbourhoods, there was a constant stream of voters coming in and out all of the polling booths we visited. An early estimate had turnout in Milwaukee up 600% on the last round of Primaries in the state, and it was evident that there was a certain buzz about the contests around today.

Both the Sanders and Cruz camps were becoming increasingly confident of victory.

That evening, Ted Cruz was holding a ‘results night watch’ public event in West Allis, just outside of Milwaukee. Indeed as soon as we arrived at the rally, the very different nature of Ted Cruz’s campaign was clear to see. This was a far cry from the big, bold, and flashy events we had seen yesterday in the Milwaukee centre; rather than long queues, street blockades, and tight security, we were able to walk from the street into the centre of the rally in just under 10 seconds. Here, a relaxed crowd were drinking beer and waiting with baited breath for the results to break.

This isn’t a candidate-centric popular movement in the same way that the Sanders and Trump campaigns are, with thousands of supporters pouring in just to get a glimpse of the messenger. This is the campaign of beer drinking, barbecuing, Christian, Mid-West America. A campaign with a totally different feel.

What followed was a huge night for Ted Cruz (and for Bernie Sanders). One which had been slowly but steadily building over the course of the weekend, and by the time the results were announced, we all knew was coming.

When Scott Walker endorsed Cruz and introduced him to a rally in Green Bay, we were all but sure that the Senator would be winning the contest by sweeping up votes from Milwaukee up through to the Michigan border. The momentum in the polls was with him, he had the approval of a Senator popular in the state’s largest city, and the only mentions among voters here of Donald Trump were made to discredit and dismiss the New York Businessman. 

Equally, Sanders was already set to do well in the majority white, working class rural areas surrounding Milwaukee and Madison, but also appeared to be doing very well with voters in the cities themselves. Clinton appeared to drop off, to give up and leave Sanders to rally supporters and voters across the city to his cause. As it turned out, Sanders swept the board across the state and lost by just a couple of points in Milwaukee itself.

In short, wins for Cruz and Sanders was a result you could see developing over the weekend. The size of them was the surprising element. 

Our visit to the rally Cruz rally gave an insight into the coalition of hardline conservatives and anti-establishment that the Texas Senator is building. It was very much a family affair, with more than a few groups of children, parents and grandparents all out together to soak in the atmosphere of the victory-party-to-be. Looking around, the crowd was almost exclusively made up of what you would consider your ‘Average American’ out here in the Mid-West.

In terms of what they were saying, the messages from the Cruz crowd were more direct than those from Trump’s. Less slogans, more substance. Along with the words ‘Jobs’, ‘Security’, and ‘Freedom’ projected onto the walls around us, ‘values’ and ‘trust’ were buzzwords of the night among supporters. They spoke of great admiration for Cruz’s conservative credentials, and support for his tough policies on immigration, protecting the constitution, and on cutting ‘wasteful’ spending. Donald Trump’s name is hardly mentioned. 

When the exit poll results were announced, with Cruz surging ahead of his rivals, the room erupted into cheers and applause. Chants of “Cruz, Cruz, Cruz” followed hurried and excited discussion about the projections. The atmosphere moved up ten gears, as the result which so many had hoped would happen looked like being delivered. A result which three weeks ago looked impossible.

After Wisconsin had been officially called for Cruz (to another round of huge applause and cheers) his victory speech which followed was one which firmly steered his campaign toward November and what he believes now will be his upcoming battle with Hilary Clinton. Indeed, his closing words were “Hilary, get ready. Here we come” and in between, he touched on every core Conservative subject that his crowd wanted to hear.

Once again he reiterated his position as the only candidate able to beat Donald Trump, calling for unity throughout the Republican Party in his effort to stop the tycoon from winning the party nomination. He now believes he has posited himself as the anti-Trump, and everyone had better now fall in line behind him.

Back in Milwaukee, everyone we spoke to from Taxi drivers to bartenders and drinkers shared the same common sentiment – content with the winners, and relief that Trump had not won. “I want Sanders or Cruz”, said a Latino man we found drinking at an Irish pub just around the block from our residence, “they’re the only two with their heads on. Trump? He doesn’t know business, only Casinos and Apartments. He’s dangerous”. 

The significance of Cruz’s big win here means that the Republican race is now almost certainly going to a contested convention. Mathematically, it now fairly inconceivable that either Trump or Cruz will make it to the 1237 delegate mark necessary to take the nomination outright. For the Democrats, it will at least certainly prolong Hilary Clinton’s nomination, at best (for Sanders) take the Democrats too to an open contest at their summer convention. 

Patrick English is a PhD Student at the University of Manchester who researches and writes regularly on electoral politics, the EU referendum, and the US Presidential election. He also is currently a Visiting Research Fellow at Sciences Po, Paris. He tweets at @PME_Politics.

Image: Jamelle Bouie