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Can we trust the 2017 election polls?
The 2015 General Election was the most significant polling error in the UK since the annus horribilis of the industry in 1992. The collective failure of the 2015 polls prompted the British Polling Council and Market Research Society to launch an Inquiry into its underlying causes (Sturgis et al, 2016)*. Allied with other recent high-profile polling misses, including the EU Referendum, public confidence in the accuracy of the polls is at a historically low ebb. This half-day symposium considers how the polling industry has responded to the recommendations of the Polling Inquiry, assesses the current state of the polling evidence, and evaluates the likelihood of a second successive general election polling miss occurring on 8 June.
The event is organised jointly by the National Centre for Research Methods, the Political Studies Association and the British Polling Council.
Chair: Sharon Witherspoon, Academy of Social Science
10.00-10.05 Welcome and Introduction (Chair)
10.05-10.30 What went wrong in 2015? - Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton
10.30-11.00 British Polling Council - John Curtice, University of Strathclyde
11.00-11.30 Political context of the 2017 election: voter flows and turnout - Jane Green, University of Manchester
11.45-12.15 Assessment of the current state of the opinion polls - Will Jennings, University of Southampton
12.15-12.35 YouGov’s approach to polling the 2017 election - Joe Twyman, YouGov
12.35-12.55 ICM’s approach to polling the 2017 election - Martin Boon, ICM
12.55-13.00 Concluding remarks (Chair)
* Sturgis et al, 2016 - full report available at http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3789/1/Report_final_revised.pdf