With Brexit chaos as the backdrop and an increasingly Americanised style of populist campaigning at its centre, GE2019 is shaping up to be a storm of an election.
The unprecedented prevalence of electoral pacts across the UK is a radical development for a UK general election. In Northern Ireland, parties have chosen to stand down in key constituencies where there is a possibility of unseating a Democratic Unionist Party pro-Brexit MP. The Green Party Northern Ireland has given support to the Social Democratic Labour Party’s Claire Hanna in South Belfast here; Sinn Fein have withdrawn from three constituencies for the same reason and the SDLP have withdrawn from North Belfast.
In England, the Brexit Party’s decision to withdraw candidates from seats with sitting Tory MPs and the reduction in the final number of Brexit candidates being fielded is undoubtedly a boost to the Conservatives. Meanwhile the Unite to Remain campaign (here) means that in 60 constituencies across England and Wales the Liberal Democrats, The Green Party of England and Wales and Plaid Cymru will agree a candidate to try to maximise the Remain vote. Not all voters are happy with finding their choices restricted by electoral pacts but if those that are happy with it vote accordingly some seats could change hands.
Across the UK, as in any election, the real battle will be in the marginals but in this instance electoral pacts and tactical voting could really make the difference. There are 57 marginal seats which will be central to the outcome. When the figures are further boiled down there are ten key Conservative seats which if lost will further increase the likelihood of a hung parliament.
Three tactical voting sites, People’s Vote, Best for Britain and Remain United have set out recommendations for tactical voting based primarily on electoral data and focused on these marginal seats. Voter engagement with this strategy will be essential for this to have an impact. There has also been an increase in voter participation with record numbers of younger voters registered to vote in the run up to the deadline for registration on the 26 Nov, recent estimates suggest that 67% of this group are under 34. It remains to be seen if the youth vote will, as anticipated go more to Pro-Remain candidates but it is clear that a combination of increased voter participation and tactical voting could make a difference.
This election, called early by Boris Johnston in an attempt to break the Brexit stalemate, may have a Brexit focus but other related issues are also on the agenda. Two, in particular, have emerged; the climate emergency and the NHS. The importance of climate change as a political issue has steadily grown in the past ten years, characterised by a slow but steady rise in a Green vote across the UK and in the apparent ‘greening’ of other party’s policies. The role of EU membership in guaranteeing environmental protections and concerns that these may slide in a post-Brexit UK have gained ground.
The rise in environmental activism particularly amongst younger voters and even those not yet old enough to vote has put this issue firmly on the table and forced all of the mainstream parties to address it. The Tories are regarded with scepticism in this area and Boris Johnston did little to help this image when he didn’t turn up to the climate emergency TV debate on Channel 4. Similarly fears that the NHS will be dismantled or that US companies will be given a free hand post-Brexit to interfere in health provision have increased calls for more clarity on the issue. Campaigns organised by health service workers backing the Labour Party and questioning Conservative policy have added weight to these concerns and as yet it is unclear if Conservative reassurances that they will maintain the NHS and invest in its future are enough to quell voter anxiety on the matter.
The defining feature of this election however is the style of the campaigning itself. Rarely has an outgoing government looked more shambolic or unprepared. In interview after interview they present inaccurate statistics and make statements which seem to indicate they are not even clear on policies they have actually introduced. Never has the adage ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’ seemed so apt.
Populism British style is really something to behold. What is really astounding however is that this does not seem to be putting voters off, with supporters of Boris Johnston accepting that he is untrustworthy but planning to vote for him and his party anyway (here). Personalised attacks on politicians with Jeremy Corbyn coming in for a disproportionate share, and allegations of media bias, have given this election a sharp edge rarely seen in UK elections (here). The belief that all politicians are basically liars seems to work to reassure voters that it’s safe to back a liar. This raises the question, is this Britain’s first post-truth election, and if so, what does it mean for the future?
Other interesting questions around the electoral system itself and new initiatives to increase voter participation such as the initiative in Bristol to give homeless citizens the ability to vote are worthy of more investigation. For now, however, the focus is on the style of campaigning and what that might mean for the outcome and for the future of British politics.
Lesley Veronica is a Lecturer in Politics at Belfast Metropolitan College and author of Northern Ireland Government and Politics, 2017. She is also a current member of the Victims and Survivors Forum, Northern Ireland and a GPNI Representative. Image credit: CC by Jeremy Corbyn/Flickr. She tweets at @Lesleyveronica.
