Voters in three German states went to the polls on Sunday 13th March, but these polls were seen as anything other than local affairs. Indeed, people all across Europe nervously watched as the results came in. Angela Merkel’s CDU suffered losses in all three states, just as the right-wing AfD made (at times sensational) gains. But there was more going on than originally met the eye, and, curiously, not all of it fitted the narrative of doom and gloom for Merkel and her CDU.
It is always tempting to try and find an over-arching narrative that helps explain election results. In the case of the regional elections that took place in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt at the weekend, it is easy to see what the constituent parts of such a narrative might be. Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU is punished for its ‘we can do it’ attitude to Europe’s on-going migration crisis whilst the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a new and spikey anti-immigrant party that opposes Merkel and is calling for her to resign, gains ground at the CDU’s expense.
In reality that is by no means the whole picture. Whilst some of the nuances still won’t transform what are clearly a bad set of results for the CDU, all, somewhat perversely, need not be doom and gloom for Angela Merkel.
The nuance begins in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany’s third largest state. The CDU’s vote share dropped by a traumatic 12 percentage points, as the party’s fortunes in one of its previous bastions took a turn for the disastrous. Yet Winfried Kretschmann, the first ever Prime Minister of a German ‘Land’ to come from the Green Party, saw his party’s share of the vote rise by six percentage points. Kretschmann, often criticised within his party for being too business-friendly, also embraced Merkel’s liberal stances on migration. It certainly did him no harm.
The story in Rheinland-Pfalz was an altogether different one. The election there was a head-to-head between the CDU and its national coalition partner, the SPD. The CDU, under the leadership of Julia Kloeckner, a much-touted potential successor to Merkel when she finally steps down, fancied its chances of being the largest party in the Mainz parliament and of subsequently removing incumbent Malu Dreyer (SPD). However, Kloeckner’s performance during the campaign, when she did badly in a couple of high profile TV debates and made an uncomfortable attempt to distance herself from Merkel on the migration issue, did her little good. Dreyer looked and sounded more competent, and this paid dividends on election day. The AfD again entered parliament, but the main battle was clearly between Dreyer and Kloeckner; and it was Dreyer’s stronger showing that helped the SPD nudge in front.
The third and final election took place in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD is at its strongest in the East, and that clearly helped it gain over 20 per cent of the vote. Saxony-Anhalt does have a history of supporting outsider, right-wing parties that have little to no base in the region, but even then 24.2 per cent was a remarkable performance. The CDU nonetheless managed to remain the largest party, polling 29.8, 2.7 down on 2011. Hardly a momentous victory, but given the AfD’s rise it was still evidence that the party’s vote share could hold up under the strain. Indeed, the AfD’s support came predominantly from former non-voters (over 100,000) and it also did well in recruiting former Left Party supporters (around 23,000). The CDU wasn’t left untouched (it lost around 35,000 voters to the AfD), but when compared with others it held its own.
The coalition dynamics that follow these elections will be complicated. Where previously two-party coalitions were the norm it is likely that three parties will have to come together to govern. Given the consensual nature of German politics that is certainly possible, but no one will pretend it will be easy. One element of continuity will be that it is quite likely that all three prime ministers will be the previous incumbents, albeit leading different constellations of parties.
The take-home messages from these elections are therefore twofold. On the one hand, the winners (the AfD) and the losers (the CDU) are, at least in numerical terms, clear. But that shouldn’t mask the fact that a lot more was going on beneath the surface. The issue of how best to solve the refugee crisis didn’t stop liberal politicians returning to power in both Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rheinland-Palatinate, and the sight of a party in power for well over a decade in Berlin doing badly in mid-term regional elections shouldn’t be altogether surprising. It’s what tends to happen.
On the other hand, and moving forward, Kloeckner’s defeat, her second in a row in Rheinland-Palatinate, means that the already unpalatable idea of replacing Merkel becomes even less attractive for the CDU. There are simply no potential replacements out there. Furthermore, Merkel’s own approval ratings have recently been moving in the right direction. Plus, if somehow Merkel can persuade her European colleagues to accept the deal she struck with Ankara on migration management last week, then her domestic situation will look very different. Merkel doesn’t want to say it, but stopping the flow of refugees has to be her number one aim. And, if the Turkey deal holds then that will happen, and Merkel’s re-election as Chancellor in 2017 will become much more likely.
Daniel Hough is Professor of Politics at the University of Sussex. He tweets @TheDanHough.
Image: FNDE
