From the ‘Portillo moment’ in 1997 to the ousting of Ed Balls in 2015, the capture of prize scalps often tells the story of how election night has unfolded. The collapse of the Liberal Democrats last time added to this long list with high profile losses for party stalwarts Vince Cable, David Laws, Danny Alexander, Jo Swinson and Simon Hughes. Elections are a brutal business. So what will the British electoral landscape look like tomorrow morning? The general consensus among pollsters and forecasters is that the Conservatives will win but by how much is subject to much debate and conjecture. Labour‘s campaign has been widely praised whereas the Conservatives and particularly Theresa May seems to have ‘dropped the ball’ on numerous occasions. As such many questions remain unanswered. Will Labour partisanship endure in the key battleground seats outside of London? Will young people vote in great numbers and even if they do will Labour end up stockpiling votes where it is already assured of victory? Has Corbyn’s personable manner cut through or will May be judged to be the most competent and win the day among the voters who decide elections? Has the focus on security in the aftermath of the Manchester and London atrocities firmed up support for the Conservatives? How important will Brexit be? Which party (if at all) will UKIP and Green voters turn to in those seats where they have no candidate standing?

Labour is expected to do well in London so victories in marginals such as Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth, Hampstead & Kilburn and Tooting are a must if the party is to hold its ground. It also will be eyeing up Gavin Barwell in Croydon Central which will be in reach if a swing to Labour in the capital occurs. Outside of London, Labour has been polling well in South Wales so have hopes in Gower and Cardiff North which they lost to the Conservatives last time. Similarly the party will be looking to recapture Ed Balls’ old seat of Morley and Outwood, and taking Brighton Kemptown as well as at least one of the Plymouth seats. Winning in longshots such as Stroud would also suggest that Labour is in for a good night. Recent polls in Scotland also indicate that the Labour could increase its representation in Edinburgh at the expense of the SNP while East Renfrewshire is also worth keeping an eye on. So we may see gains for Labour in some places but potentially losses elsewhere.

The story of the election ultimately depends on whether Labour can fend off the Conservatives in key battlegrounds across the Midlands, North of England and North Wales. The mood music from Labour activists on the ground has been largely downbeat and dismissive of the polls narrowing in their favour. The Midlands is a hotbed of Labour-Conservative marginal seats. A Conservative surge will see the party lose seats in Dudley, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Coventry, Birmingham, Leicester and Derby. High profile casualties would include David Winnick in Walsall North and Vernon Coaker in Gedling. In the worst case scenario even Tom Watson in West Bromwich East, Gloria De Piero in Ashfield, Liz Kendall in Leicester West and Margaret Beckett in Derby South would face a fight to hold on. Jack Dromey’s Birmingham Erdington seat will be a good indicator of how the Labour vote is holding up. Defeat there could be the sign of a catastrophic night for Labour. But incumbency effects could come into play which could halt Conservative aspirations. The pattern is likely to be uneven with Birmingham Edgbaston and Coventry North West prime contenders to buck any trend if a Conservative surge materialises. Elsewhere Labour face a fight in its Northern heartlands. If Labour can hang on to Wakefield, Great Grimsby, Bury South, Penistone and Stockbridge, Chorley, Hartlepool and Darlington then any large scale Conservative majority will be off the cards. A bad night for Labour could see reversals for Caroline Flint in Don Valley while even Phil Wilson in Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield could be vulnerable.

It is not only Labour which could suffer from a Conservative surge. The SNP will be fighting hard to retain its current ‘high water mark’ although the Conservatives will be hopeful in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Aberdeen South, Dumfries and Galloway as well as eyeing up the prize scalp of Commons and Deputy Leader Angus Robertson in Moray. The Conservatives battle with the Liberal Democrats could also be critical. Can Liberal Democrat incumbents in Norfolk North and Carshalton and Wallington keep the Conservatives at bay? Will the Conservatives succeed in their ‘take out Tim’ strategy? Conversely the Liberal Democrats could win back seats in outer London, Twickenham and Kingston and Surbiton, while the party has live prospects across Scotland in Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire and Fife North East. A good night for the Liberal Democrats could see the return of Vince Cable and Jo Swinson. A bad night could spell the end of Nick Clegg and Tim Farron and perhaps even put the future of the party in jeopardy. Caroline Lucas looks likely to remain the sole Green parliamentary representative while UKIP post-Brexit and without Farage at the helm looks set to see their support collapse. Yet the wider impact of UKIP and the Greens not standing in key battlegrounds could ultimately prove decisive in determining the eventual outcome. On all sides there is a lot to play for. It could be a long night.

David Cutts is Professor of Political Science at the University of Birmingham.