Less than 12 months after the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, we’re all off to the polls again. I’ll actually be holiday on June 8th. If anybody cares to join me, I’ll be watching the results on a poky tablet screen in Barcelona. Tapas, red wine and me: a true coalition of chaos.
Talk of a ‘Brexit’ election has led to suggestions that the Liberal Democrats might make a big comeback. For the 48% who voted to Remain in the European Union, for the Labour voters angry at Jeremy Corbyn’s shrugging acceptance of a vote to Leave, for the moderate Cameron-supporting Tories disillusioned with the May’s Hard Brexit, the 2017 general election presents a decent opportunity for the Lib Dems to build on gains made in local by-elections (and possibly in the local elections next week). However, there are a number of other things to think about when trying to figure out how many Liberal Democrat MPs are declared after June 8th.
Brexit undoubtedly matters in this election. However, will this be the defining issue on which people vote, or will this general election follow previous form and it will be one issue of many? For all its topical nature, and unquestionable importance in British, European and global politics and policy for the coming decades, this election will still rely on issues of economic competence and leadership, with other national and local matters factored in. These should not be forgotten about when thinking about the Lib Dems.
For all the talk of a Lib Dem resurgence in local by-elections and national polling, and genuinely (mildly) impressive it has been, the Tories’ numbers are pretty good too. It’s all fine and well for the Lib Dems to poll better than the 7.9% they polled in 2015, but the Tories appear on course to do better than the 36.9% they polled as well. Theresa May is popular both in absolute terms, and certainly popular in comparison to Tim Farron. The fundamentals of perceptions of economic competence and leadership, coupled with the Liberal Democrats’ fundamentally weak starting electoral position, suggest that major gains at the expense of the Conservatives will be difficult. Getting increased coverage during the campaign will be important, but they will hope to get coverage onto issues like Brexit rather than gay sex and the reselection of David Ward.
The uncertainty of what 2015 Labour voters will do in this election presents many interesting questions not just in Labour-Conservative contests, but also in Lib Dem-Conservative seats. There are currently 15 seats where the Labour vote in 2015 was larger than the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats. In seats with small Conservative majorities, such as Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton, or Lewes, how they vote this time could be crucial.
The same goes for 2015 UKIP voters. Some of these might have voted Lib Dem in the past, but they are unlikely to do so in June 2017. If large numbers of these return to the Conservatives, this could be tricky for the Lib Dems to overcome. Seats like Eastbourne will be fascinating, where the Conservatives have a majority of just 733 over the Lib Dems. In that seat, UKIP polled over 6000 and Labour over 4000.
While Labour’s potential vote collapse might help the Lib Dems in some seats against the Conservatives, winning seats directly from Labour might be tricky for the Lib Dems. There are not many Labour-Lib Dem marginals (Cambridge, Burnley, Bermondsey and Southwark, Bristol West, and Cardiff Central are the tightest). Beyond that, the majorities are pretty big. The Lib Dems are making a play in seats like Remain-voting Vauxhall, where Leave-supporting Kate Hoey is the Labour candidate. However, that relies on Brexit trumping every other issue in Vauxhall, to the extent that they will vote out an MP they have returned since 1989. It’s possible, but tough.
The Conservatives outspent and outfought the Liberal Democrats in seats across the South West in 2015. Even though the incumbency advantage remained specifically for Liberal Democrat MPs, they were still removed. Now, they are a party with an incumbency advantage but no incumbents. However, some of the old guard are returning, including Vince Cable, Jo Swinson, Simon Hughes and Ed Davey. Local politics matters for the Lib Dems. The Conservatives do not have the same amount of time to weaken the Lib Dems in this campaign, and so how this plays out this time will be interesting.
It has always been difficult for the Lib Dems to choose where to target resources. They probably overstretched in 2010 following Cleggmania, and despite a much more narrow and targeted campaign in 2015, they probably overstretched again. Working out whether to pile resources into optimistic targets with big Remain support or just focus on seats where the Lib Dems are a close second will be difficult.
These are just some of the things to think about ahead of June 8th. Feel free to tell me I’m wrong once the results start coming in. I’ll get back to you from my Barcelona balcony.
Craig Johnson is is a PhD student in the School of Geography, Politics and Society at the University of Newcastle. He tweets @cjnu1.
Image: Chris Reynolds
