After months of self-inflicted reputational damage, Boris Johnson’s premiership appears fatally wounded. The so-called Teflon politician, to whom nothing used to stick, has failed to emerge unscathed from ‘party-gate’.

Seemingly endless revelations have led some Conservatives to call for their party leader’s resignation. Former Brexit Secretary David Davis became the latest to join those calling for the Prime Minister’s departure.

The key to Johnson’s 2019 general election victory – the successful toppling of the ‘Red Wall’, which was left standing but significantly less stable at the 2017 general election – may also prove as important to his downfall. The MPs in these seats, almost all of whom would lose if a general election was held tomorrow according to pollsters, are said to be plotting against the Prime Minister and preparing to submit letters of no confidence to the 1922 Committee chairman, Sir Graham Brady.

These MPs were angered further when a Johnson’s loyalist briefed that they were ‘nobodies’ who owed their success to the Prime Minister, echoing Jacob Rees Mogg’s earlier description of the Scottish Conservative Leader, Douglas Ross, as a ‘lightweight’.

Elsewhere, the Sutton Coldfield Conservative Association (the local branch which has David Davis ally and former Chief Whip Andrew Mitchell as its MP) has passed its own vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister and North Tyneside Conservative council group has likewise called for his resignation.

MPs have briefed journalists that it is now a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’ – and it seems increasingly likely that the publication of Sue Gray’s report, which it is hard to imagine will fully exonerate Johnson, may trigger the submission of the final letters.

Only Brady knows the true number of letters submitted, but Johnson’s opponents are confident of getting the required 54 to trigger a confidence vote sooner rather than later.

Should the Prime Minister lose that vote, then a Conservative Party leadership election would follow. But who is likely to stand in that contest?

Here I have grouped the runners and riders into categories that reflect their likelihood to stand and their potential case for doing so.

The Favourites

Those very likely to stand and most likely to win.

• Rishi Sunak – the current Chancellor’s rise through the ranks, as a member of the 2015 intake, has been quick and, perhaps helped by his personal PR campaign during the pandemic, he remains popular with the public despite the collapse of the Prime Ministers own approval ratings. He will hope the Red Wall MPs see him as their best chance of re-election.
   
• Liz Truss – Truss has served continuously in ministerial roles since September 2012, impressing the party’s grassroots at International Trade but less so at Justice. Her demotion to Chief Secretary to the Treasury provided her with the opportunity to reinvent herself as a freedom-loving Thatcherite. Expect her pitch to focus on cutting taxes (and contrasting her aims to Sunak’s record at the Treasury).
   

The Possibles

Those who are in a strong position to stand but are not currently talked about in the same terms as Truss or Sunak

• Sajid Javid – a former Chancellor and Home Secretary with a powerful backstory, Javid has stood for the leadership previously – though it is possible he will back Truss or Sunak with a view to returning to the Treasury.
   
• Priti Patel – Patel appeals to the socially conservative right of the Conservative Party, but has disappointed this faction will her lack of breakthrough on the Channel crossings (indeed, the Daily Express has called for her resignation). She is unlikely to win, having alienated her core support base and having little appeal among more moderate TRG types.
   
• Dominic Raab – the former Foreign Secretary and current Deputy PM had a strong showing in the last leadership contest and stepped up when Johnson was hospitalised with COVID, but polling of party members does not offer him much hope.

The Dark Horses

Those tipped by some as possible successors but who are not obvious contenders (having never held a Great Office of State, for example)

• Penny Mordaunt – the former Defence Secretary came a third in a ConHome members’ survey, behind Truss and Sunak respectively. She placed significantly higher than the likes of Raab, Patel, Gove and Javid despite currently being hidden away as a Minister of State with a low profile. 
   
• Nadhim Zahawi – the Education Secretary arrived in the UK unable to speak English and went on to co-found YouGov before becoming an MP. He is tipped by ‘many MPs’, according to the Daily Mail.
   
• Ben Wallace – the current Defence Secretary is the most recent ‘dark horse’ to be suggested for the leadership, particularly in the context of his support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression and his widely praised essay on the subject.

The Ruled Outs

Those who have ruled themselves out but may still stand

• Michael Gove – a ‘proper minister’ according to Andy Burnham, Gove has been transformational at each government department he has led. But having lost two leadership elections, Gove has ruled himself out from a third.
   
• Jeremy Hunt – the former Foreign Secretary came second to Johnson in 2019, but has recently said it is unlikely he will stand (even despite the potential to deploy the ‘I told you so’ pitch). Some MPs elected between 2005 and 2015 may remember the last 5 years and embrace Hunt as a Cameroonian comfort blanket.
   

Finally, expect the likes of Tom Tugendhat (Chair, Foreign Affairs Select Committee), Mark Harper (former Chief Whip now running the COVID Recovery Group) and Gavin Williamson (former Secretary of State) to enter the contest not with a view to winning, but to position themselves for a role in the new PM’s cabinet.

This blog was written by Dr. Antony Mullen, University of Bolton, co-convenor of the PSA Conservatism Studies specialist group.