Too little but its not too late
22 March 2019

David Cameron’s new deal on Britain’s relationship with the EU falls wide of the mark; but there is still time to showcase a meatier deal ahead of a June referendum

Was anyone convinced by it? A shirt-sleeved Dave, on the shop floor at (German) engineering giant Siemens in Chippenham, arguing passionately that this, his hard-won deal, had fundamentally improved the terms of Britain’s relationship with the European Union? Would he now choose to lead Britain into this kind of an EU if we weren’t already members? Hell, yes! Dave believed it, though clearly the passion of his convictions massively outweighs the detail of what he has delivered.

There has been little (if any) unequivocal support for Dave’s viewpoint that these are “good terms” for the UK. They’re a step towards what the Tory eurosceptics will want, and they have allowed some of the key figures that will lead public opinion in the pre-referendum debate to mark his card in public with a “good, but could do better” grade (Theresa May, Boris Johnson). This leaves open the possibility that maybe, just maybe, Dave can build on these modest, initial successes in meeting his own self-imposed targets, and bring back a bigger, juicier “killer” amendment, say on immigration levels, crime or terrorism prevention – the stuff that average voters do really care about.

Few observers expected even half the proposals which Tusk put forward this week. So in spite of all of the grand posturing in Europe’s capitals over the “discrimination” that these amends will usher in, Dave’s Deal could ultimately suggest that a more radical turning point in Europe’s history has been reached. If approved at the summit later this month, Cameron’s “success” could just mark the beginning of a new era in European integration. What is striking perhaps in the terms of the proposed new deal for Britain is that it does, for the first time, deviate from some of the fundamental principles on which the European Union has been established. No more “ever closer union”. Different rules for different “types” of workers in the EU’s single market, long seen as the EU’s core success story and one where the UK is and has been keenest to play a leading role. A “red card” system whereby national parliaments can exert greater authority over Brussels edicts.

A generation ago, when the UK, under John Major’s leadership, negotiated significant “opt outs” from the Maastricht Treaties, European fundamentalists were enraged at the notion of a “multi-speed Europe” or a “Europe a la Carte” which this would usher in. But these variable solutions are the reality of what we live with in today’s European Union. A Eurozone that leads, but does not dominate, in the Single Market. A Schengen area that covers some, but not all, of the EU’s territory. National opt outs on citizenship and justice issues.

Tusk’s letter is in many ways simply an acknowledgement that the durability of the European integration project is reliant on political leaders finding flexible solutions that will allow the main features of a European Union to progress, whilst accommodating the need for national politics to respond to national priorities. Europe’s challenges today are very different to those of the Europe of 1957; the “all or nothing” integrationist vision of a Jean Monnet or a Robert Schuman simply does not sell to an increasingly sceptical electorate. Most European leaders, facing their own electoral challenges from the sceptics, will recognise the need for Tusk to cut Dave a deal. Who knows if, or more likely when, they’ll need to deliver their own compromises on EU membership to quell national uncertainties. Rather than the abstract, though historically-grounded “grand projet” of an ever closer union, what Europe’s publics want today is an ever more pragmatic arrangement between EU nations, which can deliver long-term sustainable growth. It really is that simple.

So this all suggests that the time is right for David Cameron to push harder on a more robust arrangement with the EU that builds on these initial proposals, but offers more to a national public clamouring for a “big” deal. It may have been too little for team BoJo, but it’s not too late to get more. 

 

Carolyn Rowe is Jean Monnet Chair in European Integration at Aston University and Co-Director of the Aston Centre for Europe (@Aston_ACE).

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