The United Kingdom has given official notification that it intends to leave the European Union starting around two years of tough negotiations. But the UK needs to be careful about how it approaches these negotiations. This is partly because the EU has its own agenda. But also because the UK agenda cannot be seen to be the same across each of its four countries. We need to remember that at this crucial moment in our future relationship with the European Union, the constituent parts of the UK itself are currently held together with sticky-tape which requires very careful handling.

The Northern Ireland Question is back with a vengeance with no NI government currently in place. How can negotiations take place that affect such a delicate area if the government is unable to consult the parties there? To successfully leave the EU, the UK needs to be united and facing the same direction. At the moment it is facing four different directions. Furthermore, how can the UK guarantee no change to the border when the EU will most likely not want an open border with a non-EU country? Granted, Brexiteers points towards the long standing arrangement between the UK and Ireland, however the EU is a major player now and so cannot be so easily dismissed as some tend to do.

England is also a diverse country rather than a single area. Kent is not the same as Lancashire. Cornwall is very different to Yorkshire or Merseyside. England is a loose collection of different regions that have identities which can be every bit as fierce as the other three nations. More generally, the economic investment from the EU to Cornwall is unlikely to be replaced by the UK government in the medium to long term. England benefitted massively from the UK being a member of the EU, and without that emphasis on social, cultural, and economic investment then England risks being a poorer country.

Wales also benefits from EU membership. As a country it benefitted from high levels of economic aid to combat social deprivation since 1999 which has seen significant investment such as through the ‘All Wales Coast Path’. As we now negotiate to leave the EU, Wales needs to have access to the Single Market as even Mark Reckless has now accepted. Yet despite this conversion to an element of reality the ship is sailing and the Brexiteers look set to collide with reality.

Scotland, however, poses an ever growing risk to the UK as these negotiations begin. As a result of triggering Article 50 the Scottish Nationalists are fired up for a second independence referendum. This predictable consequence reignites the debate in a country whose political debates have changed considerably since 2014. With polls suggesting that
May cannot presume that the First Minister is bound to lose a second referendum, it would be deeply remiss to ignore this dynamic within the EU negotiations. But the Nationalists have their own challenge in these negotiations. It is important to note that Remainers and Yes voters in Scotland are not necessarily the same (Sturgeon will have her own balancing act with the Yes voting Brexiteers). 

We must not fall into the trap of assuming that public opinion will remain static during the negotiations. Indeed, this is a risk that the Brexiteers need to be very cautious about. As the details of Brexit start to emerge over the coming two years, public opinion may itself start demanding a second referendum on the deal. In that event, no Parliament would be able to ignore it without risking significant electoral fallout regardless of the current denials. Consequently, although the land of milk and honey promised by the Brexiteers in the run up to the referendum is unlikely to play out, we should endeavour not to deliberately put ourselves into Dante’s Inferno.

All of these observations need to be contextualised against the intentions of the EU itself. The EU27 is a significant negotiating partner, which has the right to advance its own position just as the UK has. One against 27, though is not promising odds. Especially considering that they frame the timetable for the negotiations themselves. The UK may have to wait until after the French and German elections before meaningful talks can begin, thereby giving us a very short window in which to negotiate our future. Ignoring this reality is simply to bury our heads in the sand. Even if we had the full two years, it would test the skills of most diplomats and civil servants.

Andrew Crines is Lecturer in British Politics at the University of Liverpool. He tweets @AndrewCrines.

Image: Benjamin Elliott