Elections are pivotal moments in life of democracies. The devolved governments are peculiar as they experience multiple such moments: both national and regional elections matter. The series of UK elections in 2019 have brought about significant changes to the political landscape in Northern Ireland. Now, just days after the return of the devolved government in Northern Ireland, the Republic is set to go to polls in February with potentially greater impact on Ireland’s political futures.
One of the parties dominating the NI politics, the centrifugal Sinn Féin sharing power with – but mostly trying to outcompete – the centripetal Democratic Unionist Party, is to run in the Dáil elections in February. Both of these have been challenged in their own ways as a result of the decision of British citizens to leave the EU: In keeping with its unionist credentials, the DUP has conveniently propped up Theresa May’s Government, while Sinn Féin capitalised heavily on its abstention from the UK Parliament and focussed on the Republic, projecting its agendas to the North of the island.
The 2019 local elections in May and the Westminster elections in December have mixed the cards considerably for UK legislators. But it must be acknowledged that the upcoming Dáil elections in the South has put the ultimate pressure on Sinn Fein to re-engage and compromise in the North.
It is therefore no surprise that the recently released
New Decade, New Approach is both as compromising as it is comprehensive. It indicates how Northern Ireland parties and two governments interpret their electorate’s preferences expressed throughout the 2019. The return of the government to Stormont has been applauded for its ambition since there is
something for everyone. Yet, for experts in NI politics the wider question remains whether the ambition is about
delivering to the citizens of Northern Ireland or about standing down to these expectations.
When the Assembly reconvened last week, the new power sharing government included five main parties: Sinn Féin, the DUP, the Social Democratic and Labour Party, the Alliance Party and the Ulster Unionists. Consociational arrangement requires that both sides of the spectrum are represented in the administration, but the novelty is the key role of the Alliance. However, the party has benefitted from the stalemate not by stealth, but by accident.
It is tempting to attribute the surge of Alliance to the changing identity preferences in NI, while conflict fostered identities have undergone growing attrition. The 2018 Northern Ireland Life and Times survey indicated that 26% of the population identify as unionist, 21% as nationalist and 50% as neither unionist nor nationalist. This suggested not only an erosion of the unionist vote, but more importantly a shift from identity to issue based voting in one significant segment of the NI population.
When for the first time more seats were won by nationalists than unionists in Northern Ireland, much of the discussion has focussed on the shifting balance of power as a result of the December Westminster election. Yet, the elections merely reflected the dwindling appeal of the DUP’s agenda across segments of society: The DUP lost two of its previously held 10 seats, most significantly that of Nigel Dodds, the party’s Westminster leader, in Belfast North, whilst its overall share of the popular vote declined by 5.4%. Independent unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon’s decision not to seek re-election in North Down also paved the way for a further unionist loss, with the cross-communal Alliance Party capitalising in this constituency.
Thus, the rise of the Alliance Party has been the most important change in the electoral arithmetic. Number of seats won does not really matter: Alliance holds just one European Parliament and one Westminster seat in 2019. However, the party’s vote share has increased from 7.1% in 2014 to 18.5% in 2019 for the European Parliament election and from 7.9% in 2017 to 16.8% in 2019 at the general election.
It is now polling third in Northern Ireland which is hugely significant in a region where identity politics previously overshadowed everything else. And, the data from the European Social Survey continuously suggests that a majority of Alliance voters identify as Protestant, born in the Province.
Though this will have ramifications for the position of the region as part of the United Kingdom, Brexit played only a tangential role. True, the majority of Protestant voters in the region endorsed it, yet in NI even the staunch unionists have been queuing to apply for Irish passports to ensure their continued right of access to the EU. The rampant neglect of the region in Westminster politics reeled all parts of NI society and the PM’s venture to Northern Ireland failed to assure anyone that Westminster leadership understands the uniquely Northern Irish political rhetoric.
Brexit will only accentuate the dearth of socioeconomic situation in the Province. There are a few political parties contending to fill the gap left by politics of identity in NI. People Before Profit and the NI Greens were somewhat successful; the Workers Party, Labour Alternative, NI Conservatives, Aontú and NI21 have seen all but fleeting triumphs. The Alliance has been able to continuously mobilise the
well-off and alienated behind digestible, appealing, and realistic ideas, building on a protest vote against the establishment from 2007. Now, it will now need to show whether its brand of politics is future oriented.
While Brexit might have been a contributing factor to Alliance’s success, its pro-Remain stance has little to do with the EU. Rather its commitment to the constitutional status quo in Northern Ireland under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement is essential. With Naomi Long taking up the Minister of Justice post in the newly formed Executive, the party will need to anchor its issue based politics in the NI Assembly to ensure its own future. Brexit will retain its salience for politicking in NI, but as the UK leaves the EU, players external to NI politics will matter much more locally and for local parties success.
The UK government now working on its own transformative ‘one nation’ agenda for the new, yet one that is still largely based on British conservatism; this will allow the Alliance to keep its status as crucial regional party as long as the Conservative government does not tone down its GB-focussed and anti-EU rhetoric. Another the key to Alliance’s enduring success lies in Dublin: Should the February Dáil elections spur discussion in the Republic about an renewed European, open minded, and liberal Ireland, the Alliance will be able to drive that discussion in the North.
Party positions will matter too: Should the Sinn Fein’s position on and its irredentism for a united Ireland continue, the appeal of the Alliance will grow because it is squarely focussed on the people of the island, not on its political community. Since its establishment in 1970, Alliance has been speaking for a fairer society for all, tapping the sentiment shared across both the British isles. Irish voters are facing a tough choice in the upcoming Dáil elections: Fianna Fáil drove the country over a cliff in years of the Financial Crisis, Fine Gael that presided over austerity politics in the country since 2011, and Sinn Féin hoarding ghosts of Troubles. Upcoming elections in the South are just about to contribute significantly to the role of the Alliance plays in the North, and are bound to make it an even more significant player for political life across the island as a whole.
Timofey Agarin is the Director of the Centre for the Study of Ethnic Conflict, Queen’s University Belfast; he leads PSA SG Ethnopolitics. His research interests are ethnic politics and their impact on societal transition, including majority-minority relations, non-discrimination, migration and civil society. He tweets @T_Agarin. Henry Jarrett is Associate Lecturer in Politics at the University of Exeter. His main research interests are conflict management and electoral politics in divided societies. Email: [email protected]
