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Contextualising the (lack of) media reporting in the 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly elections
The elections in Northern Ireland should be seen as holding great significance; the scandal that lead to the elections being called was widely discussed within the media and the region is possibly the most affected by the Brexit vote, sharing a land border with EU. Given the high salience of elections in 2016, principally the EU referendum and questions over the bias nature of the media reporting during the election campaign alongside the relative uncertainty currently surrounding (British) politics and the much publicised reason for the elections in Northern Ireland it could be assumed that media reporting of the election was also likely to be high. Regional coverage of the elections was strong, but this was not the case for UK print media.
In fact, over the 28-day period just 42 articles appeared across all major national titles, some of which (The Express, The Telegraph and The Daily Mail) overlooked the elections altogether. Compared with other sub-national elections the media coverage was very low. In the four weeks prior to the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election for example, 146 articles on the issue appeared in the same newspapers, many of which emphasised the challenge to Labour posed by UKIP (see figure 1).
Figure 1. Media coverage of NI Assembly elections (6th March) and Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election (23rd Feb)
*DATA OBTAINED FROM LEXISNEXIS SEARCH. SEARCH TERMS USED STOKE ON TRENT BY-ELECTION OR STOKE CENTRAL OR PAUL NUTTALL FOR NI: NORTHERN IRELAND ELECTIONS OR NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY. DATA OBTAINED FOR FOUR WEEKS PRIOR TO ELECTION.
The Northern Ireland elections were called following resignation of Martin McGuinness on the 9th January 2017 in protest over the renewable heat incentive scheme. The scheme and the calling of the elections made headlines within the UK national newspapers, for example The Daily Mirror ran the headline “McGuinness Quits over Scandal and calls for Election” (Jan 10th) and The Sun “So wat’s it Arl about? Stormont in Crisis” (21st Dec). Over the four weeks from the 13th December to the 10th January this issue appeared 98 times – twice as many articles concerned themselves with the origins of the election than reported the election campaign itself (see figure 2 below). Such reporting may lead to questions of legitimacy if the scandal leading to the elections being called received greater publicity than the elections designed to draw a line under it.
This is not the first time such disparities have been seen within the media. Media reporting of the South Yorkshire PCC by-election of 2014, which was generated following the resignation of Shaun Wright over the force’s handling of the child sex abuse scandal in Rotherham followed a similar pattern. Despite widespread attention upon the reason for Mr Wright’s resignation little attention focused upon the election to find his replacement (admittedly a situation unaided by the refusal of the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives to field a candidate). Shaun Wright resigned on the 16th September 2014. On the 28 days between the 20th August and the 17th September 130 articles discussed the scandal. Some newspapers (The Mirror/Sunday Mirror and The Sun) averaged more than one article a day. Yet in the 28 days prior to the by-election (30th October) the election was not mentioned in a single article within a national title (see figure 2).
Figure 2. Media Interest in Elections. Data from NI assembly elections (6th March 2017) and South Yorkshire PCC elections.
*DATA OBTAINED FROM A LEXISNEXIS SEARCH. KEY TERMS FOR NI ELECTIONS SAME AS FIGURE 1, KEY TERMS FOR REASONS FOR PCC ELECTIONS = SHAUN WRIGHT OR SOUTH YORKSHIRE POLICE AND CRIME COMMISSIONER OR ROTHERHAM CHILD SEX. REASONS FOR NORTHER IRELAND ELECTIONS = MARTIN MCGUINNESS OR ARLENE FOSTER OR RENEWABLE HEAT INCENTIVE KEY TERMS FOR REASON FOR POLICE AND CRIME COMMISSIONER ELECTIONS = SOUTH YORKSHIRE POLICE AND CRIME COMMISSIONERS ELECTIONS OR YORKSHIRE POLICE AND CRIME COMMISSIONER BY-ELECTIONS OR ALAN BILLINGS. ALL DATA OBTAINED IN FOUR WEEK PERIOD BEFORE THE ELECTION OR (IN THE CASE OF “REASONS FOR” ELECTION) THE CALLING OF THE ELECTION.
It is easy to dismiss such findings as simply a reality of the media, who are more prone to report scandals and crises (entities which have the ability to sell newspapers) than to report mundane processes aimed at resolving or correcting such actions. However doing so is problematic for two reasons. Firstly the heterogeneity of reporting and different levels of salience the media attach to different elections is important. The media have the power of agenda setting – through the positioning and reporting of selective news – this can feed into public perceptions of salience. Those that are detached from the political situation in Northern Ireland may view this month’s elections there as less important as the reasons for calling the elections in the first place or even the by-elections that took place in England last month. This is problematic as it may offer a disproportionally negative view of politics and overlooks the fact that such issues are being resolved (or at least the processes for resolving these issues is underway).
Secondly as the case of the Northern Ireland Assembly elections demonstrates such reporting raises questions of how similar sub-national elections are. Given that the Stormont elections were offered less coverage than the Stoke by-elections (an election with a significantly smaller electorate) it is hard to conclude that an equality of salience is offered to sub-national elections. This raises issues not simply in terms of obtaining accurate classifications of elections but through unequal reporting links to wider debates exploring the legitimacy offered to elections or the propensity of voters to make informed decisions at the ballot box (or even the propensity of voters to turn out to vote). In this regard the links between media coverage of an election and turnout are essential to wider understandings of participation and voter turnout.
Given that key media narratives of previous elections have become almost folklore within British politics, for example the self-publicising narrative of The Sun in the General Election of 1992 and studies of elections often equate media support for political parties and (positive) coverage (often implicitly) as a sign of success, what lessons can be drawn from elections which receive little coverage (or none at all)? If media reporting is then assimilated with notions of success should the apathy the media showed to the Northern Ireland elections be viewed somehow as a failure? Does/could the absence of such reporting lead to wider questions of legitimacy?
Christopher Kirkland is a Lecturer in Politics at the University of Liverpool. He tweets @ChrisDJKirkland.