The upcoming Holyrood and Cardiff elections may result in the largest parties across the three nations all centred on independence. How can Westminster display its commitment to the union and the people of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales?
Current polling for the May elections predicts that the SNP is likely to continue leading the Scottish Government and that Plaid Cymru may soon take over the reins in Cardiff. If these trends hold, the largest parties across the three devolved nations would all be nationalist, including Sinn Féin in Stormont. What does this mean for the future of the United Kingdom?
It is important to note that there is no expectation that, come 8 May, independence referendums (and a border poll) will immediately be called for by those three party leaders. Political analysts may well frame the victory of Plaid Cymru and the SNP as a reaction against the incumbent UK Labour government, in addition to more local political factors, e.g., the generation-long incumbent Welsh Labour government, reaction against the rise of Reform, support for specific policies, etc. Additionally, polling reflects that independence remains split in Northern Ireland and Scotland, while little support currently exists in Wales. However, any dismissal of the significance of the SNP government entering its second decade in power and the elevation of the first Plaid Cymru Welsh First Minister would be an error. The symbolic power of a photo of First Ministers Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Féin), John Swinney (SNP), and Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru) meeting would send a profound message about the current state of the United Kingdom. There is also no doubt that these three leaders would have the so-called “bully pulpit” for building further support for independence; as the Plaid leader recently stated, “…I want to bring the people of Wales with us on that journey [of independence].” This is to say nothing of the potential for increased seats for the Scottish Greens, who also support independence.
What should be the reaction in Westminster, dominated by union-supporting UK parties, to either prevent or react to such an electoral result? Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan (Labour) recently spoke at the Institute of Government and warned that “separatism was on the agenda”, as she advocated for increased powers for Cardiff. It is interesting to note that neither the UK Government nor other Westminster leaders have issued warnings about the dangers of independence-based parties, which reflects that either they are too involved in Westminster-based issues or remain apathetic about the electoral fates of the nations. By comparison, on the eve of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the UK leaders of the Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats all travelled north of the English border to advocate for the advantages of the union. However, in the absence of such pre-election actions, there remain a myriad of strategies the pro-UK parties can embrace in their post-election reactions.
A campaign to maintain and strengthen the union must be two-fold: 1) The UK Government should show the nations that Westminster politicians care about improving their lives, and 2) The asynchronous nature of devolution must further evolve. These two points may initially seem mutually exclusive. In other words, if devolved governments are empowered to do more for their constituents, by consequence, won’t Westminster become less visible and relevant to those same voters? Yet, the first proposal is more vibes-based (if you will), whilst the second is more policy-focused. The frustration of voters across the nations is akin to the frustration of rural voters (in the UK and other countries) with distant, uncaring, urban-focused politicians. Whether such perceptions are valid, it is the responsibility of elected leaders to show up and listen to such discontented constituents. This “left behind” mentality has contributed to the rise of nascent Reform UK. In the devolved context, this translates to the need for increased visibility of UK ministers, beyond the territorial offices, across the entire UK. Such a focus is by no means a quick-fix solution but rather requires long-term tangible engagement beyond the borders of England. UK Labour, the very party that oversaw the creation of the three devolved institutions in the late 1990s, may ask itself, “Beyond policy announcements and funding allocations, what can we do to show that we stand for the importance and necessity of the union?”
In terms of increasing the decentralisation of powers to the nations, the oft-repeated aphorism that devolution is “a process, not an event” serves as a guiding principle. There are a variety of proposals awaiting action. UK Labour previously commissioned the report, “A New Britain: Renewing our Democracy and Rebuilding our Economy” (also known as the Brown report), before the 2024 election. Not only does this report outline proposals for an improved devolution scheme, it also explicitly acknowledges “…the deep sense many [in the devolved nations] have of being morally and politically abandoned by the present UK government and the desperation for greater agency…” The report calls for replacing the House of Lords with an Assembly of the Nations and Regions, formally enshrining the Sewel Convention (wherein the UK Parliament may only legislate on devolved matters with that nation’s parliamentary permission), and extending the same protections enjoyed by MPs to devolved parliamentarians.
Yet, after a year and a half in power, there does not seem to be a pre-election commitment to these efforts. The recent decision by the UK Government not to devolve policing to Wales, a power already enjoyed by Northern Ireland and Scotland, does not bode well. Time will tell whether the polls will prove correct and what, if any, the reaction of Westminster will be to the presence of three independence-party leaders. The maintenance of the union requires attention; whether London-based leaders will get to work or allow entropy to occur will dictate the future of how “United” our Kingdom remains.
Phillip Gilfus is a final-year PhD researcher at the University of Reading, focusing on electoral effects on parliamentary behaviour in the Scottish Parliament.
